South Bend-Mishawaka MSA vs. Michigan Comparative Trends Analysis: Per Capita Personal Income Growth and Change, 1969-2022 Introduction South Bend-Mishawaka MSA: 2022 PCI = $56,410 2022 Percent of State = 83.24% Michigan: 2022 PCI = $57,038 Per Capita Income (PCI) is one of the most widely used indicators for gauging the economic performance and changing fortunes of local economies. It is used as a yardstick to assess the economic well being of a region's residents and the quality of consumer markets. It serves as a barometer for calibrating the economic performance of a region over time and to judge differences in relative economic prosperity between regions. Shifting trends in local per capita income growth have important social and political ramifications and significant implications in formulating local economic development strategies and initiatives. Data Definition: This measure of income is calculated as the total personal income of the residents of an area divided by the population of the area. Per capita personal income is often used as an indicator of consumers' purchasing power and of the economic well-being of the residents of an area. Personal income is measured as a flow throughout the year, while the measurement of population is at one point in mid-year. Therefore, per capita income is distorted if a significant change in population occurs during the year. For smaller counties in particular, per capita income in any given year may be exceptionally high or low for the short run because of unusual local conditions, such as a bumper crop, a catastrophe, or a major construction project as the building of a dam or nuclear power plant. Farm incomes are notorious for being especially volatile year-to-year, owing to changing weather, commodity market conditions, and alterations in government programs. Therefore, the per capita income of farm-dependent counties may exhibit sharp fluctuations over time. The presence of large institutional populations--such as residents attending a local college or the residents of a local prison or state mental institution--can significantly lower the per capita income estimates of an area. Such results may not reflect the relative economic well being of the non-institutional population and may mislead if care is not given to their interpretation. South Bend-Mishawaka MSA Per Capita Personal Income, 1970-2022 Current vs. Constant Dollars Figure 1. Figure 1 depicts the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's annual per capita personal income over 1970-2022 in current and constant (2017) dollars. Constant dollar measurements remove the effects of inflation. They allow for comparison of changes in the real purchasing power of the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA over time. When measured in current dollars, the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's per capita personal income increased 1,363.26%, from $3,855 in 1970 to $56,410 in 2022. When measured in constant 2017 dollars to adjust for inflation, it advanced 149.24%, from $19,504 in 1970 to $48,611 in 2022. Real Per Capita Personal Income, 1969-2022 Figure 2. Figure 2 traces the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's and Michigan's annual real per capita personal income for the period 1969-2022 to illustrate real per capita personal income patterns over time. During this 54-year period, the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's real per capita personal income rose from $19,884 in 1969 to $48,611 in 2022, for a net gain of $28,727, or 144.47%. In comparison, Michigan's real per capita personal income increased from $21,752 in 1969 to $49,152 in 2022, for a net advance of $27,400, or 125.96%. Real Per Capita Personal Income Indices (1969=100): 1969-2022 Figure 3. Figure 3 portrays the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's real per capita personal income growth in a broader context by offering direct comparisons across time with Michigan, the United States. The growth indices shown here express each region's real per capita personal income in 1969 as a base figure of 100, and the real per capita personal incomes in later years as a percentage of the 1969 base figure. This method allows for more direct comparison of differences in real per capita personal income growth between regions that may differ vastly in size. The South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's overall real per capita personal income growth was 144.47% over 1969-2022 outpaced Michigan's increase of 125.96%, and fell below the United States' increase of 171.04%. Per Capita Personal Income as a Percent of the U.S. Average: 1969-2022 Figure 4. Figure 4 displays the trends for per capita personal income relative to the national average by tracing the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA and Michigan per capita personal income as a percent of the national average over 1969-2022. In 1969, the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's per capita personal income amounted to 95.53% of the national average; in 2022, it approximated 86.16%. Similarly, in 1969, Michigan's per capita personal income totaled 104.50% of the national average; in 2022, it consisted of 87.12%. South Bend-Mishawaka MSA Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change, 1970-2022 Figure 5. Figure 5 highlights the short-run pattern of the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's real per capita personal income growth by tracking the year-to-year percent change over 1970-2022. The average annual percent change for the entire 53-year period is also traced on this chart to provide a benchmark for gauging periods of relative high--and relative low--growth against the backdrop of the long-term average. On average, the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's real per capita personal income grew at an annual rate of 1.73% over 1970-2022. The South Bend-Mishawaka MSA posted its highest growth in 1972 (6.92%) and posted its lowest growth in 2009 (-5.23%). In 2022, the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's real per capita personal income declined by -4.05% South Bend-Mishawaka MSA Real Per Capita Personal Income: Annual Percent Change and Decade Averages Over 1970-2022 Figure 6. Over the past five decades some msas have experienced extreme swings in growth, and often such swings have tended to coincide with the decades themselves. Figure 6 again traces the annual percent change in the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's real per capita personal income since 1970, but this time they are displayed with average growth rates for the decade of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, 2000s, 2010s, and 2020-2022. During the 1970s, the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's annual real per capita personal income growth rate averaged 2.22%. It averaged 1.73% in the 1980s, 2.23% during the 1990s, 0.31% in the 2000s, 1.96% throughout the 2010s, 2.45% thus far this decade (2020-2022). Real Per Capita Personal Income Growth: Average Annual Percent Change by Decade Figure 7. Figure 7 compares the decade average growth rates for the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA noted in the previous graph with the corresponding decade averages for Michigan and the nation. As the chart reveals, the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA's average annual real per capita personal income growth posted below Michigan's average during the 1970s (2.22% vs. 2.33%), registered above Michigan's average throughout the 1980s (1.73% vs. 1.67%), registered above Michigan's average throughout the 1990s (2.23% vs. 2.18%), led Michigan's average in the 2000s (0.31% vs. -0.26%), posted below Michigan's average during the 2010s (1.96% vs. 2.00%), and registered above Michigan's average over the 3 year period of the current decade, 2020-2022 (2.45% vs. 1.70%). Finally, relative to nationwide real per capita personal income growth trends, the South Bend-Mishawaka MSA lagged the nation over the 1970s (2.22% vs. 2.37%), posted below the nation in the 1980s (1.73% vs. 2.19%), exceeded the nation during the 1990s (2.23% vs. 2.01%), fell under the nation during the 2000s (0.31% vs. 1.10%), fell below the nation throughout the 2010s (1.96% vs. 1.97%), and recorded above the nation over 2020-2022 (2.45% vs. 1.78%).
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