Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Diagnosing Employment Growth
Across Michigan Counties
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Employment Growth by County
Michigan:
2010-2020 = 0.43%
2020 = -7.83%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of employment growth across all of Michigan's 83 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Michigan Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the employment growth of Michigan's 83 counties over the latest available year (2020) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2020). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Employment Growth by County
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2020 and 2020
Employment Growth by County
white dot
Michigan:
2010-2020 = 0.43%
2020 = -7.83%
This figure displays the 83 counties of Michigan as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual employment growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2020), and the horizontal axis representing the employment growth rate for the near-term (2020).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term employment growth exceeded the statewide average of 0.43%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 0.43% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual employment growth rate trailed the statewide average (0.43%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 16 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2020, while 67 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 56 counties whose most recent (2020) employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (-7.83%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 27 counties whose employment growth over 2020 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 83 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2020) and near-term (2020) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 0.43% over 2010-2020 and -7.83% over 2020:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are the eleven counties whose average annual employment growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (0.43%) and near-term (-7.83%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are the five counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate exceeded the statewide average (0.43%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Michigan average (-7.83%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are the forty-five counties whose long-term average annual employment growth rate fell below the statewide average (0.43%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (-7.83%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are the twenty-two counties whose average annual employment growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (0.43%) and near-term (-7.83%).
   
 
Summary of Michigan's 83 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(-7.83%)
Above
(-7.83%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(0.43%)
5
11
16
Below
(0.43%)
22
45
67
 
27
56
83
 
   
Leading Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Michigan:
2010-2020 = 0.43%
2020 = -7.83%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Michigan counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Michigan's average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2020 = 0.43%) as well as near-term (2020 = -7.83%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020 as noted in the table below.
Of Michigan's 83 counties, just 11 (13%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Slipping Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Slipping Counties
white dot
Michigan:
2010-2020 = 0.43%
2020 = -7.83%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 5 Michigan counties classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2020 = 0.43%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2020 = -7.83%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
Only 5 ( 6%) of Michigan's 83 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Gaining Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Michigan:
2010-2020 = 0.43%
2020 = -7.83%
This figure shows the distribution of the 45 Michigan counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual employment growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2020 = 0.43%), while they outpaced Michigan's average near-term (2020 = -7.83%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
Of Michigan's 83 counties, 54% (45) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
Lagging Counties
2020 vs. 2010-2020 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Michigan:
2010-2020 = 0.43%
2020 = -7.83%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 22 Michigan counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual employment growth both long-term (2010-2020 = 0.43%) as well as near-term (2020 = -7.83%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual employment growth rate over 2010-2020.
27% of Michigan's counties, 22 of 83, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
NOTE: Click on any county name to highlight its position in the chart above.
   
 
Michigan
Employment Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2020
 
2020
 
 
Leading Counties
 
5
1.36
 
18
-5.76
53,120
 
15
0.59
 
31
-6.65
19,498
 
10
1.02
 
6
-4.04
26,322
 
6
1.26
 
21
-5.98
52,499
 
4
1.46
 
1
-0.73
3,004
 
1
2.20
 
49
-7.62
86,368
 
7
1.15
 
11
-4.63
5,523
 
13
0.71
 
25
-6.35
17,238
 
8
1.13
 
5
-2.81
10,286
 
3
1.51
 
24
-6.26
160,143
 
14
0.68
 
36
-6.93
255,843
Slipping Counties
 
2
1.67
 
64
-8.37
471,258
 
16
0.44
 
60
-8.08
30,814
 
12
0.85
 
61
-8.13
11,780
 
9
1.08
 
71
-8.66
415,956
 
11
0.90
 
65
-8.40
925,664
Gaining Counties
 
22
0.22
 
20
-5.97
3,085
 
72
-0.92
 
35
-6.80
3,302
 
53
-0.62
 
9
-4.53
14,686
 
47
-0.47
 
53
-7.72
8,653
 
82
-1.67
 
52
-7.71
3,316
 
68
-0.81
 
29
-6.52
43,745
 
30
-0.03
 
54
-7.74
7,041
 
45
-0.43
 
50
-7.64
76,429
 
24
0.12
 
8
-4.31
18,622
 
55
-0.67
 
38
-7.06
63,857
 
18
0.36
 
37
-6.95
14,536
 
75
-1.00
 
12
-4.99
15,429
 
62
-0.74
 
34
-6.76
9,858
 
29
0.01
 
27
-6.45
5,205
 
51
-0.59
 
32
-6.73
17,297
 
42
-0.33
 
28
-6.50
15,809
 
63
-0.75
 
13
-5.33
7,069
 
69
-0.81
 
55
-7.76
6,574
 
17
0.40
 
47
-7.56
65,623
 
57
-0.69
 
15
-5.54
16,662
 
66
-0.79
 
10
-4.55
15,531
 
50
-0.56
 
22
-6.04
15,536
 
48
-0.50
 
43
-7.33
177,143
 
35
-0.11
 
44
-7.37
69,250
 
19
0.32
 
30
-6.54
147,920
 
36
-0.13
 
33
-6.73
6,109
 
20
0.24
 
39
-7.06
671
 
60
-0.73
 
46
-7.47
32,089
 
40
-0.26
 
51
-7.69
13,471
 
25
0.10
 
17
-5.57
17,388
 
33
-0.05
 
23
-6.12
44,783
 
34
-0.10
 
48
-7.61
21,677
 
38
-0.19
 
2
-0.90
3,176
 
61
-0.73
 
41
-7.28
9,974
 
58
-0.70
 
7
-4.10
8,085
 
83
-2.88
 
4
-1.92
1,991
 
43
-0.39
 
14
-5.46
13,796
 
79
-1.09
 
16
-5.55
4,286
 
56
-0.67
 
19
-5.94
7,749
 
44
-0.42
 
40
-7.22
60,967
 
23
0.15
 
3
-1.77
26,954
 
52
-0.59
 
45
-7.38
16,035
 
74
-0.99
 
56
-7.76
22,499
 
54
-0.62
 
26
-6.37
17,697
 
73
-0.93
 
42
-7.30
29,026
Lagging Counties
 
81
-1.57
 
81
-11.34
5,668
 
32
-0.04
 
67
-8.49
14,029
 
71
-0.87
 
80
-10.05
9,097
 
27
0.04
 
66
-8.43
23,814
 
49
-0.50
 
78
-9.19
170,920
 
26
0.06
 
68
-8.51
17,194
 
28
0.01
 
76
-8.96
24,719
 
31
-0.04
 
63
-8.33
10,279
 
67
-0.79
 
77
-9.01
4,727
 
59
-0.72
 
79
-9.61
34,676
 
77
-1.06
 
58
-7.87
34,848
 
64
-0.77
 
69
-8.53
2,197
 
70
-0.83
 
82
-11.73
5,544
 
76
-1.05
 
72
-8.71
9,793
 
65
-0.77
 
75
-8.94
9,429
 
37
-0.15
 
59
-7.94
52,331
 
39
-0.22
 
70
-8.58
73,412
 
80
-1.17
 
83
-17.23
2,411
 
46
-0.43
 
73
-8.78
97,812
 
78
-1.07
 
57
-7.84
3,305
 
21
0.24
 
62
-8.28
897,168
 
41
-0.30
 
74
-8.79
17,044
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.43
 
-7.83
5,266,334
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
0.88
 
-5.39
190,776,800
November 2021
REAP_PI_CA1400_1000_LSGL
 
   
Copyright © 2022. Pacific Northwest Regional Economic Analysis Project (PNREAP). All Rights Reserved.

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