Leading, Slipping, Gaining, Lagging Analysis:
Assessing State Government Earnings Growth
Across Michigan Counties
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
Michigan:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 4.68%
Borrowing from an approach that sometimes appears in the finance sections of the popular press, LSGL analysis is a handy and versatile way to compare, portray and classify the patterns of real state government earnings growth across all of Michigan's 83 counties. In finance, this technique is used for comparing and assessing the market performance of individual securities or across industry sectors. For example, the performance of the 30 stocks contained within Dow are compared with one another over the past week in contrast to their performance over the past month using the Dow's respective averages as the points of reference.
Here in this Michigan Regional Economic Analysis Project report, we adopt this approach to gauge and compare the real state government earnings growth of Michigan's 83 counties over the latest available year (2022) against the backdrop of their growth over the long term period (2010-2022). In so doing we classify their growth and performance into 4 broad categories: Leading, Slipping, Gaining and Lagging.
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
County vs Statewide Average: 2010-2022 and 2022
Real* State Government
Earnings Growth
Michigan:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 4.68%
This figure displays the 83 counties of Michigan as dots on a scattergram, with the vertical axis representing the average annual real state government earnings growth rate over the long-term period (2010-2022), and the horizontal axis representing the real state government earnings growth rate for the near-term (2022).
This figure sets apart those counties whose long-term real state government earnings growth exceeded the statewide average of 2.47%, by portraying them in the top two quadrants demarcated at 2.47% on the vertical axis. County whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate trailed the statewide average (2.47%) are distributed in the bottom two quadrants. In all, 27 counties surpassed the statewide average over 2010-2022, while 37 counties fell below.
Similarly, the two quadrants on the right of this figure present the positions of the 58 counties whose most recent (2022) real state government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (4.68%). The two quadrants on the left feature those 6 counties whose real state government earnings growth over 2022 trailed the statewide average.
Accordingly, each quadrant portrays the performance of all 83 counties corresponding with their long-term (2010-2022) and near-term (2022) performance relative to their respective statewide averages of 2.47% over 2010-2022 and 4.68% over 2022:
Leading counties () (top-right quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real state government earnings growth rate surpassed the statewide average both long-term (2.47%) and near-term (4.68%).
Slipping counties () (top-left quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate exceeded the statewide average (2.47%), but whose near-term growth has "slipped" by falling below the Michigan average (4.68%).
Gaining counties () (bottom-right quadrant)...are counties whose long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate fell below the statewide average (2.47%), but whose near-term growth has "gained" by registering above the average (4.68%) statewide.
Lagging counties () (bottom-left quadrant)...are counties whose average annual real state government earnings growth rate fell under the statewide average both long-term (2.47%) and near-term (4.68%).
   
 
Summary of Michigan's 83 County Totals
 
Short Term Average
 
 
Below
(4.68%)
Above
(4.68%)
 
Long
Term
Average
Above
(2.47%)
1
26
27
Below
(2.47%)
5
32
37
 
6
58
64
 
   
Leading Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Leading Counties
white dot
Michigan:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 4.68%
Turning attention to the top-right quadrant from the discussion above, this figure features the distribution of the Michigan counties classified as Leading. These counties surpassed Michigan's average annual real state government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.47%) as well as near-term (2022 = 4.68%). Each is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Michigan's 83 counties, 26 (31%) are classified within the Leading () category. Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Slipping Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Slipping Counties
Michigan:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 4.68%
This figure depicts the distribution of the 1 Michigan county classified as Slipping (top-left quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate outpaced the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.47%), while they trailed the statewide average near-term (2022 = 4.68%). Again, each county is identified by it's corresponding ranking based on its average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Only 1 (1%) of Michigan's 83 counties are classified as Slipping (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Gaining Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Gaining Counties
white dot
Michigan:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 4.68%
This figure shows the distribution of the 32 Michigan counties classified as Gaining (bottom-right quadrant), in that their long-term average annual real state government earnings growth rate posted below the average statewide (2010-2022 = 2.47%), while they outpaced Michigan's average near-term (2022 = 4.68%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on its average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
Of Michigan's 83 counties, 39% (32) are featured as Gaining (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
Lagging Counties
2022 vs. 2010-2022 Averages
Lagging Counties
white dot
Michigan:
2010-2022 = 2.47%
2022 = 4.68%
This figure depicts the distributions of the 5 Michigan counties classified as Lagging (bottom-left quadrant). These counties trailed the statewide average annual real state government earnings growth both long-term (2010-2022 = 2.47%) as well as near-term (2022 = 4.68%). Again, each county is identified by its corresponding ranking based on it's average annual real state government earnings growth rate over 2010-2022.
6% of Michigan's counties, 5 of 83, are characterized here as Lagging (). Those counties ranked by their long-term average include:
   
 
Michigan
Real* State Government Earnings Growth
County vs. Statewide Average
 
2010-2022
 
2022
 
 
Leading Counties
 
16
3.38
 
24
5.92
70,209
 
12
3.60
 
5
5.95
13,294
 
9
3.91
 
44
5.92
41,058
 
19
2.98
 
10
5.95
20,961
 
3
4.78
 
30
5.92
17,188
 
13
3.54
 
28
5.92
22,567
 
8
3.94
 
9
5.95
14,884
 
10
3.86
 
11
5.94
21,471
 
24
2.73
 
1
7.12
2,441,258
 
1
5.33
 
8
5.95
13,797
 
25
2.73
 
63
5.38
391,349
 
4
4.61
 
57
5.90
8,864
 
17
3.36
 
22
5.93
55,828
 
26
2.62
 
18
5.93
85,327
 
11
3.71
 
35
5.92
488,024
 
23
2.83
 
19
5.93
22,623
 
27
2.57
 
41
5.92
148,415
 
7
4.19
 
43
5.92
23,195
 
2
4.80
 
45
5.92
13,692
 
18
2.98
 
38
5.92
38,823
 
5
4.47
 
47
5.92
31,668
 
6
4.22
 
27
5.92
104,733
 
21
2.95
 
21
5.93
39,739
 
22
2.92
 
26
5.92
38,712
 
14
3.43
 
64
5.11
4,923,743
 
20
2.97
 
39
5.92
34,174
Slipping Counties
 
15
3.41
 
67
3.22
800,182
Gaining Counties
 
53
0.15
 
50
5.91
26,832
 
57
-0.24
 
11
5.94
21,471
 
43
1.34
 
49
5.91
67,402
 
62
-1.09
 
6
5.95
7,279
 
45
1.31
 
33
5.92
103,868
 
38
1.45
 
23
5.93
77,535
 
36
1.62
 
14
5.94
28,659
 
61
-0.66
 
56
5.90
18,151
 
47
1.08
 
51
5.91
33,730
 
29
1.95
 
34
5.92
202,642
 
49
1.02
 
58
5.90
27,930
 
40
1.40
 
62
5.38
288,035
 
33
1.74
 
59
5.89
19,976
 
58
-0.44
 
25
5.92
72,198
 
51
0.90
 
20
5.93
110,006
 
50
0.95
 
32
5.92
16,491
 
54
0.05
 
52
5.91
8,189
 
39
1.44
 
37
5.92
204,366
 
37
1.56
 
42
5.92
90,123
 
48
1.03
 
11
5.94
21,471
 
60
-0.62
 
15
5.93
14,320
 
31
1.78
 
60
5.89
11,675
 
56
-0.07
 
46
5.92
41,008
 
30
1.85
 
40
5.92
66,201
 
55
-0.03
 
4
5.97
6,406
 
42
1.35
 
2
6.05
4,294
 
28
1.99
 
16
5.93
16,666
 
64
-3.29
 
3
6.03
5,032
 
34
1.69
 
55
5.91
7,440
 
63
-1.86
 
7
5.95
6,818
 
32
1.76
 
48
5.92
59,940
 
52
0.67
 
29
5.92
62,410
Lagging Counties
 
59
-0.45
 
65
4.39
95,864
 
35
1.67
 
68
2.71
512,119
 
44
1.32
 
70
1.77
159,838
 
46
1.30
 
69
2.23
204,477
 
41
1.39
 
66
3.84
1,598,296
Undefined/Suppressed Counties
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
61
5.88
11,499
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
31
5.92
26,382
 
U
U
 
53
5.91
34,818
 
U
U
 
36
5.92
72,720
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
54
5.91
9,625
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
17
5.93
30,422
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
U
U
 
S
S
S
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.47
 
4.68
15,690,201
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
2.81
 
2.68
477,522,000
November 2023
REAP_PI_CA1600N_620310_LSGL
 
   
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